Market Notes: Shingle Prices Sat Still for a Year, Then Moved Seven Percent in Three Months
For a year the Bureau of Labor Statistics' producer price index for asphalt roofing products barely moved while lumber and steel climbed around it. Then, between April and July, it rose more than it had in the previous twelve months combined. The figures are below as published, beside the two materials that had already moved, with the series' own record of what a normal summer looks like and what a homeowner holding a spring quote can do with that.
Figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What moved
The Bureau of Labor Statistics keeps a producer price index for prepared asphalt and tar roofing and siding products, which is the series closest to the shingles on a roofing quote. For the twelve months to April 2026 it hardly moved. It was 359.4 in July of last year and 347.6 this April, a change of -3.3% over nine months in which lumber and steel both climbed.
Then it moved. From April to July 2026 the index rose +7.1%, to 372.3. That three-month rise is larger than the whole of the previous year's change, and it takes the twelve-month figure to +3.6%, all of it earned since spring.
| Month | Asphalt roofing products index |
|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | 359.4 |
| Oct 2025 | 357.8 |
| Jan 2026 | 347.0 |
| Apr 2026 | 347.6 |
| May 2026 | 354.7 |
| Jun 2026 | 367.6 |
| Jul 2026 | 372.3 |
The Bureau of Labor Statistics marks May, June and July as preliminary, which means the size of the move can still be revised for up to four months after first publication. The series is not seasonally adjusted, and its own history shows a summer pattern: from April to July it rose +2.4% in 2024 and +4.2% in 2025. This year's +7.1% is larger than either, so part of the move is the calendar and part of it is not. The index measures what plants receive, not a retail price and not your bid.
Three materials, one year
Set the shingle series beside the two materials this site has already tracked and the year sorts itself into an order. Softwood lumber rose +15.0% over the twelve months to July 2026, on Bureau of Labor Statistics figures, and +6.3% in the last three of them. Steel mill products rose +22.5% on the year and +9.6% in the last three months. Asphalt roofing products rose +3.6% on the year and +7.1% in the last three.
Two readings fit those numbers and the data so far cannot choose between them. One is that roofing products were late: the inputs that go into a shingle moved earlier and the shingle price is catching up. The other is that the summer rise is the busy season showing through an unadjusted index, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics series did in each of the two previous summers, and that the flat year before it was the unusual part. The next two or three months of data will say which; July alone does not.
What the three series do settle is the order of magnitude. Over a year, the material on a shingle roof has moved by single digits, the wood under it by double digits, and the metal in its flashings, drip edge and any standing-seam alternative by more than either. A roofing quote that has risen a fifth since last summer has not risen because of shingles.
Where it lands on a quote
The Cost vs. Value Report's most recent benchmark for a full asphalt shingle replacement is $31,871 nationally in its 2025 edition, which is $1,062 per square on its three-thousand-square-foot scope. Shingles are one line inside that figure, alongside underlayment, flashing, disposal, labor and overhead, and we could not source the share of the job that the shingles themselves represent. So this note does not turn a +7.1% move in a Bureau of Labor Statistics index into a dollar change on a quote, and neither should anyone else.
What it can tell you is direction and timing. A shingle bid priced in the spring was priced on a flat market; one priced now is priced on a rising one, and a roofer who says shingle costs have moved since the quote was written is, on this evidence, right about the direction. How much they have moved for the bundles on your particular roof depends on the product, the distributor and the week, none of which an index knows.
Retail prices would settle it and we could not source them; automated retrieval from the large retailers was refused when we tried, and no figure on this page is a retail material price. The distributor's invoice is the document that answers the question, and it is a fair thing to ask to see.
What this does not tell you
One index series, compared with two others, does not know which shingle is on your quote, what your roofer paid for it, or whether the bundles were bought before or after April. It says nothing about labor, which is not in any of these indexes and which moves on its own calendar. It cannot tell you whether the summer rise is a trend or a season, and it does not try.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics marks the latest three months preliminary, and they may be revised in either direction. A series that was flat for a year and then rose for three months is not a forecast of the fourth.
What to ask
A shingle quote can be held against an index only if three things about it are known.
When were the shingles priced, and is the price held? A quote written in the spring may carry a spring price or may be repriced at order; the quote should say which, and for how long.
Which product, by name and weight? The index is an average of many products; the bundle on your roof is one of them, and its price moves on its own.
Can the material be shown as a line, with the distributor's invoice behind it? A roofer who separates material from labor has given you the only version of a quote that any index can be held against.
Related on this site
Other pages on this site that take a quote apart the same way:
Sources and method
- Producer prices, metals and roofing products — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index, commodity series read from the agency's own public API and checked against the series pages on data.bls.gov. Steel mill products is series WPU1017, aluminum mill shapes is WPU102501, and prepared asphalt and tar roofing and siding products is WPU1361, all not seasonally adjusted, base 1982. Values marked preliminary by the agency are subject to revision for up to four months after first publication. Figures read from the publisher on 2 September 2026. data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU1017
- Producer Price Index — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index, commodity series read from the agency's own public API. Softwood lumber is series WPU0811 and softwood lumber, not edge worked, is series WPU081106, both not seasonally adjusted. The index measures what producers receive, not what a contractor charges you. bls.gov/ppi
- Cost benchmark — Zonda, Cost vs. Value Report 2025 (38th annual edition), published through the Journal of Light Construction. National average job cost for the scope summarized above; the nine US Census division figures from the same edition are used to scale it. Figures read from the publisher on 31 August 2026. jlconline.com/cost-vs-value
- Retail material prices — not used, because we could not source them. Automated retrieval from Home Depot, Lowe’s, Menards, Build.com, SupplyHouse and Walmart was attempted on 31 August 2026 and refused by all six. No price on this page is a retail material price.
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