Market Notes: Steel and Aluminum Mill Prices Are Up. What That Does Not Tell You About a Metal Quote
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' producer price index for steel mill products has risen every month since November, and its aluminum mill shapes series has risen faster still. This note gives both series as published, says which household products they sit behind, and is plain about the one number nobody can give you: how much of a metal roof, garage door or entry door quote is the metal itself.
Figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What moved
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a producer price index for steel mill products, which tracks what mills receive for sheet, plate, bar and the other shapes that become roofing panels, garage doors and door skins. In July 2026, the most recent month published, the index stood at 374.2. A year earlier it was lower by a wide margin: the twelve-month change is +22.5%.
The shape of the year matters as much as the total. The index bottomed in November 2025 and has risen in every month since, +28.3% from that low and +18.7% since January. There has been no month of retreat in that stretch.
Aluminum mill shapes, the Bureau of Labor Statistics series behind gutters, downspouts, cladding and window frames, moved further and faster. The index was 387.8 in July 2026, up +40.5% on the year. It had climbed without a pause from the middle of last year to a peak in June 2026, and the July figure is the first monthly decline in that run, -1.6% from the peak.
| Month | Steel mill products | Aluminum mill shapes |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | 305.5 | 276.1 |
| Nov 2025 | 291.6 | 312.0 |
| Jan 2026 | 315.4 | 328.7 |
| Apr 2026 | 341.5 | 367.8 |
| Jun 2026 | 360.1 | 394.3 |
| Jul 2026 | 374.2 | 387.8 |
Both series are not seasonally adjusted, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics marks the most recent months as preliminary; they can be revised for up to four months after first publication. Neither series is a price anyone can be quoted. They track what mills receive, and a distributor, a fabricator and an installing crew all sit between that number and the one on your contractor's page.
Where it lands on a quote
The index is the mill gate for domestic steel, and it says nothing about a finished product that was made abroad. A garage door pressed in Ohio from Ohio steel, a standing-seam panel roll-formed on a trailer in your driveway from domestic coil, a steel entry door skinned in Indiana: each of those buys steel at a price the index describes, and the index has risen a fifth in a year. A quote higher than last year's may be carrying some of that. Buying American-made does not sidestep it, because this is the price of the American coil.
How much higher is the question this note cannot answer. To turn a change in a Bureau of Labor Statistics mill index into a change in a quote you need to know what share of the job is the metal, as opposed to forming, coating, hardware, freight and the crew, and we could not source that share for a metal roof, a garage door or an entry door. Anyone who multiplies +22.5% by a guessed share and hands you a dollar figure has made the guess up.
What can be said is the scale. The Cost vs. Value Report's most recent benchmarks put a standing-seam metal roof at $51,865, an insulated steel garage door at $4,672 and a steel entry door at $2,435, nationally, in its 2025 edition. Those are the jobs the index is pressing on, and the next edition of that report, not this index, is where the pressure will show up as a number a homeowner can use.
What this does not tell you
This note reports two index series and nothing else. It does not know what your local supplier paid for coil this month, whether the installer bidding your roof bought panels before or after the spring, or what share of any quote is metal. It cannot tell whether a quote that rose since last year rose because of steel or because the installer's calendar is full, and a producer price index says nothing about labor at all.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics marks the latest months preliminary and may revise them; And an index that rose in every month since November is not a forecast that it will rise next month; the aluminum series turned in July after a year without a down month.
What to ask
Four questions turn a metal quote into one you can read against this note.
When was the metal priced, and how long is the quote good for? A quote priced on last quarter's coil and one priced on this month's are different quotes, and the validity period tells you which you are holding.
Is the panel, door or frame domestic or imported, and does the installer know? The answer does not change the mill price, but if there is a tariff or surcharge line on the bid, whoever put it there should be able to say what it is attached to.
Is there a separate line for the metal? A bid that separates material from labor is the only kind that can be compared with a mill index at all.
Would a different gauge or a different metal change the price materially? On a roof, a heavier gauge is more metal at a higher mill price; on gutters, aluminum has moved faster than steel this year. The installer should be able to price the alternative.
Related on this site
Other pages on this site that take a quote apart the same way:
Sources and method
- Producer prices, metals and roofing products — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index, commodity series read from the agency's own public API and checked against the series pages on data.bls.gov. Steel mill products is series WPU1017, aluminum mill shapes is WPU102501, and prepared asphalt and tar roofing and siding products is WPU1361, all not seasonally adjusted, base 1982. Values marked preliminary by the agency are subject to revision for up to four months after first publication. Figures read from the publisher on 2 September 2026. data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU1017
- Metal roofing benchmark — Zonda, Cost vs. Value Report 2025, published through the Journal of Light Construction. Project: Roofing Replacement, Metal — 3,000 square feet of prefinished standing-seam metal over a rectangular hip roof, tear-off to bare sheathing included, with an ice-barrier membrane at the perimeter, synthetic underlayment over the deck, matching drip edge, gable trim and vented ridge, and custom flashing at two average-size skylights. The asphalt shingle project in the same edition uses the same 3,000 square foot scope, which makes the two directly comparable. Figures read from the publisher on 31 August 2026. jlconline.com
- Garage door benchmark — Zonda, Cost vs. Value Report 2025, published through the Journal of Light Construction. Project: Garage Door Replacement — remove a 16-by-7-foot door and its tracks, install a four-section insulated steel door on new tracks, and reuse the existing opener. National figure and the nine US Census division figures from the same edition; earlier years from the same publisher's project history. Figures read from the publisher on 2 September 2026. jlconline.com
- Entry door benchmark — Zonda, Cost vs. Value Report 2025, published through the Journal of Light Construction. Project: Entry Door Replacement, Steel — remove a standard entry door and jambs, install a factory-finished 20-gauge steel door with a half-glass panel, new jambs, threshold, casings and lockset. National figure and the nine US Census division figures from the same edition; earlier years from the same publisher's project history. The same edition's upscale project, Grand Entrance (fiberglass) — the opening reframed for a door with two sidelights — is cited once, for contrast, at its national figure. Figures read from the publisher on 2 September 2026. jlconline.com
- Metal share of a job — We could not source a published figure for the share of a residential metal roofing, garage door or steel entry door job that is the metal itself, as opposed to forming, coating, hardware, freight and labor. Without it, a change in a mill price index cannot be converted into a change in a quote, and this site does not attempt it. Figures read from the publisher on 2 September 2026.
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